DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectsloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
Hoodwink
Scofield · 12 games
Grimstroke
Scofield · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 10 games
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Wits · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
1w Team
Tusk
swedenstrong · 32 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 26 games
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 21 game
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
607 picks · 528 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 413 bans
Hoodwink
486 picks · 241 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 415 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1007 bans
Warlock
390 picks · 240 bans
Puck
388 picks · 919 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
South America Rejects 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by 1w Team.
Game 2prediction correct
South America Rejects 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects.
Game 3prediction missed9:30
South America Rejects 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastFrank
Faceless Voidv1olent-
AlchemistWits
PangolierSquad1x
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Crystal MaidenElmisho
VenomancerRein
Shadow DemonScofield
Tuskswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 55%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3