DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 20 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 54 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Magnussignature
Collapse · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 630 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 536 bans
Doom
536 picks · 1061 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1324 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1171 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 956 bans
Techies
457 picks · 483 bans
Enchantress
440 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:20
Talon Esports 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:01:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMikoto
MorphlingYatoro
TimbersawJabz
Queen of PainLarl
Slark23savage
BeastmasterCollapse
ClinkzQ
EnchantressMiposhka
RubickOli
DisruptorMira
Game 2prediction correct31:23
Talon Esports 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMikoto
Phantom LancerYatoro
Slark23savage
PangolierLarl
LycanJabz
BeastmasterCollapse
BatriderQ
SilencerMiposhka
RubickOli
Shadow DemonMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2