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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 24 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 18 games
67%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 20 games
85%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 630 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 536 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
536 picks · 1061 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1324 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1171 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 956 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
457 picks · 483 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
440 picks · 633 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:40
Team Liquid 58%LGD Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
50% · 136 games54% · 136 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Axe
Axezai
47% · 28 games47% · 41 game
Lifestealershiro
Lifestealer
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
52% · 149 games49% · 70 games
Marsniu
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixBoxi
42% · 109 games52% · 118 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
57% · 27 games51% · 84 games
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed21:38
Team Liquid 58%LGD Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
55% · 144 games45% · 83 games
Phantom Lancershiro
Phantom Lancer
Mars
MarsNisha
45% · 86 games53% · 441 game
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderzai
51% · 264 games50% · 203 games
Magnusniu
Magnus
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
49% · 132 games50% · 112 games
Oracley`
Oracle
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
50% · 298 games50% · 85 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2