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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Breeki Cheekiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 30 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 24 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%

Breeki Cheeki

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 7 games
71%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
спортик · 7 games
57%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnus
OneJey · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 532 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 413 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
484 picks · 241 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 416 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
392 picks · 242 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 918 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Breeki Cheeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:30
Nigma Galaxy 73%Breeki Cheeki 27%
The model gave 73% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezrincyq
51% · 86 games43% · 359 games
Beastmasterспортик
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
47% · 280 games50% · 99 games
LifestealerDarkLord^
Lifestealer
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
58% · 178 games51% · 254 games
BatriderChodΣX
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
51% · 166 games49% · 93 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickOmaR
53% · 118 games41% · 23 games
Lichasdekor_r
Lich
Game 2prediction correct26:14
Nigma Galaxy 71%Breeki Cheeki 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
52% · 73 games56% · 119 games
WeaverDarkLord^
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
40% · 292 games57% · 289 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierInfernal
41% · 274 games50% · 330 games
Puckспортик
Puck
Zeus
ZeusGH
49% · 12 games52% · 87 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
49% · 266 games60% · 92 games
Treant Protectorasdekor_r
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 86%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2