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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South America Rejects

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Scofield · 11 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
71%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 33 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
28%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 25 games
72%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 23 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 22 games
59%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 532 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
536 picks · 411 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 543 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 241 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 416 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 1012 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
392 picks · 242 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 916 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:32
South America Rejects 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
56% · 208 games48% · 164 games
MuertaYuma
Muerta
Axe
AxeFrank
55% · 208 games49% · 76 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressElmisho
46% · 176 games45% · 242 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
52% · 443 games51% · 184 games
RubickKJ
Rubick
47% · 369 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:30
South America Rejects 39%Heroic 61%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
48% · 263 games33% · 11 games
BloodseekerYuma
Bloodseeker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFrank
47% · 148 games47% · 123 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Kez
KezWits
48% · 120 games53% · 186 games
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressElmisho
48% · 131 game51% · 457 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
53% · 326 games57% · 211 games
RubickKJ
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed36:19
South America Rejects 40%Heroic 60%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainDarkMago
46% · 282 games49% · 75 games
LifestealerYuma
Lifestealer
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
53% · 209 games50% · 276 games
PangolierTaiLung
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFrank
54% · 164 games43% · 91 game
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Lion
LionScofield
55% · 81 game55% · 284 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorElmisho
45% · 99 games51% · 109 games
RubickKJ
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 71%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3