Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus Titansloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nexus Titans
No games played over 6 months.
CDUB Esports
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Sanctified · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 7 games
Doomoften banned
islA · 7 games
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Sanctified · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
757 picks · 626 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 534 bans
Doom
539 picks · 1058 bans
Beastmaster
537 picks · 1326 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1178 bans
Pangolier
461 picks · 952 bans
Techies
456 picks · 473 bans
Mirana
441 picks · 225 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Nexus Titans 32%CDUB Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 31:30.
Game 2prediction correct16:38
Nexus Titans 32%CDUB Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 29:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 68%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2