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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 28 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 28 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Chris Luck · 21 game
52%

Team Secret

Mirana
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 10 games
30%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 8 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 632 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 533 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
535 picks · 1052 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1318 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 949 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
448 picks · 465 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
440 picks · 226 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
Evil Geniuses 55%Team Secret 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerPakazs
50% · 128 games48% · 140 games
TimbersawArmel
Timbersaw
Viper
ViperChris Luck
47% · 85 games58% · 213 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireWisper
47% · 283 games46% · 105 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
49% · 50 games58% · 215 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
49% · 227 games43% · 100 games
LichPuppey
Lich
Game 2prediction missed14:35
Evil Geniuses 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Team Secret in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
48% · 197 games54% · 275 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Windranger
WindrangerWisper
40% · 130 games52% · 158 games
Void SpiritArmel
Void Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetChris Luck
44% · 215 games45% · 79 games
SlarkCrystallis
Slark
Lich
LichPanda
42% · 145 games63% · 79 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
55% · 75 games57% · 171 game
Techiesyamich
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2