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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 38 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 23 games
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 17 games
71%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 632 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 533 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
535 picks · 1052 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1318 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 949 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
448 picks · 465 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
440 picks · 226 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
TSM 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusakasane
58% · 137 games48% · 97 games
Morphling23savage
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbryle-
50% · 209 games52% · 184 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
43% · 72 games50% · 148 games
MagnusJabz
Magnus
Techies
TechiesAri
53% · 312 games47% · 293 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
53% · 135 games45% · 143 games
Skywrath MageOli
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct9:34
TSM 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Visage
Visagekasane
54% · 149 games49% · 239 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbryle-
50% · 231 game48% · 323 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
56% · 286 games46% · 169 games
Bloodseeker23savage
Bloodseeker
Batrider
BatriderAri
54% · 329 games52% · 223 games
TechiesQ
Techies
Lich
LichWhitemon
47% · 157 games45% · 198 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2