Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
StoRm
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
RodjER · 10 games
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
MoneyMakers
Rubick
Bignum · 18 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
Phoenix
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
755 picks · 634 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 535 bans
Doom
536 picks · 1050 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1317 bans
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1177 bans
Pangolier
459 picks · 949 bans
Techies
445 picks · 465 bans
Mirana
440 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:34
StoRm 53%MoneyMakers 47%
The model gave 53% on StoRm — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawnicky`cool
WindrangerLukas
Alchemistkrylat
Queen of PainEgor
Batrideremptiness
Spirit BreakerBb3px
Keeper of the LightOneJey
VenomancerBignum
EnchantressSoNNeikO
TechiesCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 2prediction correct31:20
StoRm 56%MoneyMakers 44%
The model gave 56% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingkrylat
SlarkLukas
Batrideremptiness
TimbersawBb3px
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Void SpiritEgor
Keeper of the LightOneJey
TechiesBignum
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
VenomancerCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 3prediction missed6:29
StoRm 56%MoneyMakers 44%
The model gave 56% on StoRm — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightkrylat
SvenLukas
Pucknicky`cool
AxeBb3px
Magnusemptiness
Storm SpiritEgor
PugnaOneJey
TechiesBignum
EnchantressSoNNeikO
SilencerCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 62%
Series resultMoneyMakers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3