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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ri4man · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
gotthejuice · 5 games
80%

SIBE Team

Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
y0nd · 7 games
43%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Arti_Shock · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
klassnokruto · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
klassnokruto · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
erase · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 635 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1313 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
532 picks · 1044 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1177 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
458 picks · 946 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
441 picks · 459 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
440 picks · 225 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Natus Vincere Junior 48%SIBE Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
47% · 161 game48% · 174 games
Void Spiriterase
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusRi4man
49% · 151 game54% · 254 games
Batriderklassnokruto
Batrider
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
43% · 101 game51% · 116 games
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
Techies
TechiesDaze
53% · 205 games50% · 165 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Oracle
OracleRiddys
55% · 91 game
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Natus Vincere Junior 47%SIBE Team 53%
The model gave 53% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
46% · 41 game45% · 147 games
Bloodseekernesfeer
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRi4man
53% · 178 games51% · 147 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Magnus
Magnuspma
51% · 170 games47% · 146 games
Spirit Breakerklassnokruto
Spirit Breaker
Pugna
PugnaRiddys
48% · 98 games55% · 242 games
Techiesy0nd
Techies
Batrider
BatriderDaze
53% · 195 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2