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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 27 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 36 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 23 games
52%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
532 picks · 1038 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1308 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1172 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 944 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
439 picks · 225 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
438 picks · 454 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:3
Tundra Esports 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
53% · 181 game45% · 142 games
Timbersawbryle-
Timbersaw
Enigma
Enigma33
54% · 189 games54% · 77 games
Tidehunterkasane
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
52% · 324 games44% · 106 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Techies
TechiesSneyking
58% · 188 games44% · 538 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonImmersion
50% · 73 games46% · 92 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Game 2prediction missed27:52
Tundra Esports 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
59% · 85 games43% · 124 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
53% · 389 games46% · 113 games
Timbersawbryle-
Timbersaw
Visage
Visage33
60% · 147 games46% · 222 games
Undyingkasane
Undying
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
42% · 51 game46% · 372 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Techies
TechiesImmersion
55% · 183 games47% · 24 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 67%
Accuracy by game1 of 2