?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 23 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 18 games
67%

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Q · 19 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
82%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
81%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
532 picks · 1038 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1308 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1172 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 944 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
439 picks · 225 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
438 picks · 454 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:40
Team Liquid 69%Talon Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusamiCKe
61% · 119 games35% · 155 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
58% · 195 games50% · 192 games
Slark23savage
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
52% · 244 games47% · 82 games
Anti-MageJabz
Anti-Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressiNSaNiA
49% · 163 games47% · 313 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Techies
TechiesBoxi
55% · 184 games46% · 163 games
PugnaOli
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed9:25
Team Liquid 67%Talon Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
58% · 154 games46% · 46 games
Anti-MageJabz
Anti-Mage
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
55% · 153 games51% · 107 games
Magnus23savage
Magnus
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderzai
43% · 66 games41% · 64 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Venomancer
VenomancerBoxi
58% · 87 games44% · 213 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
53% · 106 games47% · 136 games
SilencerOli
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2