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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Mirana
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 10 games
30%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
78%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 8 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%

LGD Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
94%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 535 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
532 picks · 1038 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1308 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1172 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
454 picks · 944 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
439 picks · 225 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
438 picks · 454 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:8
Team Secret 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerArmel
46% · 79 games47% · 26 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
48% · 253 games49% · 212 games
SnapfireNothingToSay
Snapfire
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
51% · 364 games59% · 259 games
Beastmasterniu
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaPuppey
55% · 96 games51% · 219 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
43% · 61 game46% · 137 games
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Team Secret 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArmel
52% · 104 games44% · 66 games
Phantom Lancershiro
Phantom Lancer
Windranger
WindrangerCrystallis
46% · 122 games55% · 191 game
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerFbz
39% · 120 games52% · 179 games
Magnusniu
Magnus
Marci
MarciPuppey
56% · 178 games49% · 168 games
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
Rubickyamich
46% · 239 games57% · 159 games
Lichy`
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2