Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GRIN esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 635 bans
Disruptor
604 picks · 534 bans
Doom
532 picks · 1037 bans
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1307 bans
Ember Spirit
459 picks · 1170 bans
Pangolier
453 picks · 944 bans
Mirana
439 picks · 224 bans
Techies
437 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:39
Ravens 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 59:01.
Game 2prediction correct25:37
Ravens 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 46:28.
Game 3prediction correct17:45
Ravens 48%GRIN esports 52%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 41:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 52%
Series resultRavens 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3