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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Skyward · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Babitich · 10 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
FrancisLee · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
FrancisLee · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Sammyboy · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
749 picks · 634 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 534 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
532 picks · 1035 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
530 picks · 1307 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
459 picks · 1168 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
452 picks · 942 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
438 picks · 224 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
436 picks · 451 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 23%
Hero pool strength55% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
TiltedBoys 51%Wildcard Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderUSH
56% · 65 games48% · 15 games
Drow RangerSammyboy
Drow Ranger
Techies
TechiesSkyward
50% · 141 game47% · 20 games
InvokerRCY
Invoker
51% · 145 games
RubickFrancisLee
Rubick
41% · 26 games
PhoenixSunlight
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct10:19
TiltedBoys 48%Wildcard Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 38:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsUSH
50% · 142 games37% · 40 games
JuggernautSammyboy
Juggernaut
Rubick
RubickSkyward
48% · 485 games55% · 223 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
53% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightFrancisLee
Keeper of the Light
60% · 257 games
DisruptorSunlight
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct9:33
TiltedBoys 49%Wildcard Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderUSH
49% · 205 games44% · 65 games
MagnusSammyboy
Magnus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSkyward
57% · 55 games51% · 71 game
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
54% · 47 games
Shadow DemonSunlight
Shadow Demon
43% · 77 games
MiranaFrancisLee
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 54%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3