?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 8 games
38%

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
27%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 12 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Qupe · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mo13ei · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Qupe · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
jmn- · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
746 picks · 634 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 533 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
528 picks · 1298 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
528 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
455 picks · 1162 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 937 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
432 picks · 224 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
430 picks · 444 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:34
Nigma Galaxy 55%IVY 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by IVY in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
52% · 155 games45% · 45 games
JuggernautOtaker
Juggernaut
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
56% · 109 games54% · 115 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorKuroKy
41% · 30 games42% · 85 games
MagnusMikSa`
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaGH
43% · 110 games57% · 122 games
Miranarue
Mirana
55% · 37 games
Oraclejmn-
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct40:19
Nigma Galaxy 58%IVY 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMinD_ContRoL
55% · 285 games54% · 27 games
AbaddonOtaker
Abaddon
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYuma
47% · 146 games51% · 168 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesGH
55% · 204 games43% · 183 games
MagnusMikSa`
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerKuroKy
47% · 226 games48% · 208 games
Undyingjmn-
Undying
52% · 275 games
Miranarue
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed28:31
Nigma Galaxy 56%IVY 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by IVY in 48:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMinD_ContRoL
55% · 247 games54% · 83 games
Naga SirenOtaker
Naga Siren
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
55% · 125 games45% · 122 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Techies
TechiesGH
51% · 177 games45% · 158 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Lich
LichKuroKy
47% · 118 games51% · 235 games
Miranarue
Mirana
45% · 69 games
Oraclejmn-
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3