DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Tusk
Q · 29 games
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
Rubicksignature
Q · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 17 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 16 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 16 games
Tundra Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 630 bans
Disruptor
603 picks · 533 bans
Doom
528 picks · 1021 bans
Beastmaster
527 picks · 1294 bans
Ember Spirit
455 picks · 1159 bans
Pangolier
449 picks · 933 bans
Mirana
432 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
428 picks · 615 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:45
Talon Esports 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 59:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawJabz
Faceless VoidSkiter
Windranger23savage
PangolierMalr1ne
MorphlingMikoto
Dark Seer33
OracleQ
BatriderImmersion
BaneOli
LichSaksa
Game 2prediction missed40:36
Talon Esports 41%Tundra Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling23savage
TerrorbladeSkiter
Void SpiritMikoto
Medusa33
WindrangerJabz
Primal BeastMalr1ne
RubickQ
Shadow DemonSaksa
ClockwerkOli
Spirit BreakerImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2