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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
94%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
pLAnet · 12 games
58%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 51 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
743 picks · 630 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 533 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
528 picks · 1021 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
527 picks · 1294 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
455 picks · 1159 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
449 picks · 933 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
432 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
428 picks · 615 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:27
LGD Gaming 54%Team Spirit 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcishiro
48% · 183 games45% · 80 games
BristlebackYatoro
Bristleback
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
52% · 223 games53% · 177 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Visage
Visageniu
59% · 111 games51% · 44 games
Ogre MagiCollapse
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
50% · 119 games46% · 438 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Techies
TechiespLAnet
53% · 197 games45% · 94 games
PugnaMiposhka
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed37:38
LGD Gaming 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 49:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidshiro
55% · 122 games47% · 145 games
MagnusYatoro
Magnus
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
54% · 177 games55% · 443 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireNothingToSay
52% · 258 games52% · 36 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
45% · 429 games47% · 391 game
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maideny`
42% · 238 games53% · 209 games
Skywrath MageMira
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2