DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 36 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 22 games
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
Team Secret
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 9 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Armel · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 630 bans
Disruptor
603 picks · 533 bans
Doom
528 picks · 1021 bans
Beastmaster
527 picks · 1294 bans
Ember Spirit
455 picks · 1159 bans
Pangolier
449 picks · 933 bans
Mirana
432 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
428 picks · 615 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:39
TSM 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTimado
BloodseekerCrystallis
Beastmasterkasane
Void SpiritArmel
Magnusbryle-
Spirit BreakerFbz
Keeper of the LightAri
Shadow Demonyamich
Witch DoctorWhitemon
BanePuppey
Game 2prediction missed32:25
TSM 48%Team Secret 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by TSM in 1:00:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinbryle-
Phantom LancerCrystallis
Medusakasane
MagnusArmel
Void SpiritTimado
TimbersawFbz
Bounty HunterAri
Shadow Demonyamich
TechiesWhitemon
ChenPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2