DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 51 game
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Magnussignature
Collapse · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 19 games
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 35 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 21 game
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
736 picks · 626 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1284 bans
Doom
520 picks · 1013 bans
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1149 bans
Pangolier
447 picks · 923 bans
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:29
Team Spirit 58%TSM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautYatoro
BloodseekerTimado
Storm SpiritLarl
Windrangerbryle-
TidehunterCollapse
Medusakasane
MiranaMira
Skywrath MageAri
TechiesMiposhka
LichWhitemon
Game 2prediction missed16:42
Team Spirit 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by TSM in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerYatoro
MagnusTimado
TimbersawCollapse
Beastmasterkasane
Ember SpiritLarl
Puckbryle-
TechiesMira
RubickAri
LichMiposhka
OracleWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2