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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 28 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 27 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Chris Luck · 21 game
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 18 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 17 games
94%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
736 picks · 626 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1284 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
520 picks · 1013 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1149 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
447 picks · 923 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
Evil Geniuses 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusPakazs
56% · 115 games42% · 32 games
Muertashiro
Muerta
Doom
DoomWisper
54% · 224 games47% · 210 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireChris Luck
55% · 309 games45% · 128 games
Windrangerniu
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingMatthew
51% · 223 games47% · 93 games
Winter WyvernpLAnet
Winter Wyvern
Lich
LichPanda
57% · 117 games44% · 525 games
Rubicky`
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed35:12
Evil Geniuses 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChris Luck
56% · 93 games41% · 211 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
52% · 200 games56% · 95 games
Faceless Voidshiro
Faceless Void
Venomancer
VenomancerWisper
52% · 65 games50% · 137 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangerMatthew
46% · 75 games41% · 70 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePanda
53% · 105 games58% · 25 games
Witch Doctory`
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2