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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 23 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 18 games
67%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 25 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
736 picks · 626 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1284 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
520 picks · 1013 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1149 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
447 picks · 923 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:26
Team Liquid 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
Magnuszai
45% · 163 games43% · 132 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Sven
SvenmiCKe
55% · 44 games50% · 118 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
53% · 117 games48% · 59 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
51% · 224 games55% · 178 games
TechiesSaksa
Techies
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
58% · 35 games48% · 96 games
Spirit BreakerImmersion
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction missed11:35
Team Liquid 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
43% · 88 games40% · 79 games
BloodseekerSkiter
Bloodseeker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
55% · 175 games51% · 58 games
Visage33
Visage
Magnus
Magnuszai
43% · 191 game50% · 160 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
58% · 109 games53% · 125 games
TechiesSaksa
Techies
Venomancer
VenomanceriNSaNiA
55% · 88 games51% · 229 games
BatriderImmersion
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2