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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
80%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Force · 8 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 7 games
71%

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 10 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
735 picks · 625 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1282 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
520 picks · 1010 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
452 picks · 1148 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
447 picks · 922 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
423 picks · 609 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:18
Geek Fam 59%UD Vessuwan 41%
The model gave 59% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherUlnit
53% · 39 games63% · 68 games
MedusaKNP
Medusa
Axe
AxeForce
48% · 28 games47% · 88 games
Void SpiritBeebie
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderSkem
50% · 177 games50% · 53 games
Shadow Demonboombell
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
45% · 90 games47% · 125 games
SilencerLionaX
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct20:5
Geek Fam 60%UD Vessuwan 40%
The model gave 60% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 20:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlnit
51% · 126 games52% · 25 games
Phantom LancerKNP
Phantom Lancer
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
48% · 48 games56% · 87 games
Void SpiritBeebie
Void Spirit
Pugna
PugnaSkem
50% · 66 games50% · 31 game
Dark Willowboombell
Dark Willow
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
43% · 30 games48% · 127 games
UndyingLionaX
Undying
Game 3prediction correct27:14
Geek Fam 62%UD Vessuwan 38%
The model gave 62% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerUlnit
56% · 93 games43% · 61 game
JuggernautKNP
Juggernaut
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
58% · 71 game41% · 40 games
ViperBeebie
Viper
Batrider
BatriderSkem
56% · 177 games41% · 243 games
Rubickboombell
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
49% · 57 games53% · 54 games
LichLionaX
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 69%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3