Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovaloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Holy Grailwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Rubick
sheep · 10 games
Tusksignature
sheep · 6 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
Phoenix
sheep · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 5 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
Holy Grail
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Tzy · 4 games
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
735 picks · 625 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
Beastmaster
520 picks · 1282 bans
Doom
520 picks · 1009 bans
Ember Spirit
451 picks · 1147 bans
Pangolier
447 picks · 921 bans
Mirana
427 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
422 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Supernova
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:22
Supernova 50%Holy Grail 50%
The model gave 50% on Supernova — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 55:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantresssheep
AlchemistSummer
45% · 25 games
Queen of PainGaN-
45% · 25 games
PugnaDrink
51% · 35 games
LichSj
Game 2prediction correct10:29
Supernova 49%Holy Grail 51%
The model gave 51% on Holy Grail — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenixsheep
MedusaSummer
53% · 34 games
Ember SpiritGaN-
57% · 10 games
Dark WillowDrink
58% · 8 games
OracleSj
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 56%
Series resultHoly Grail 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2