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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IHC Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Boomy · 8 games
38%

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 4 games
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 4 games
25%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
734 picks · 624 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
519 picks · 1281 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
518 picks · 1008 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
451 picks · 1145 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
445 picks · 920 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
422 picks · 608 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:25
Polaris Esports 56%IHC Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAkashi
48% · 164 games47% · 137 games
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEnryu
53% · 281 game54% · 266 games
PangolierSancity
Pangolier
Mars
MarsMac
49% · 106 games52% · 104 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Venomancer
VenomancerBoomy
46% · 65 games58% · 174 games
Techiesace12
Techies
Windranger
Windrangercml
39% · 116 games55% · 51 game
OracleSe
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct29:23
Polaris Esports 60%IHC Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 42:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAkashi
57% · 84 games49% · 71 game
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
53% · 115 games52% · 54 games
Earth SpiritSancity
Earth Spirit
Doom
DoomEnryu
53% · 252 games52% · 129 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Venomancer
Venomancercml
49% · 73 games48% · 423 games
Rubickace12
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaBoomy
48% · 298 games42% · 145 games
Skywrath MageSe
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct21:13
Polaris Esports 56%IHC Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAkashi
51% · 118 games47% · 254 games
Monkey King423
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
57% · 210 games53% · 367 games
PangolierSancity
Pangolier
Doom
DoomEnryu
48% · 276 games42% · 105 games
Windrangereleven
Windranger
Mirana
MiranaBoomy
49% · 267 games49% · 127 games
Phoenixace12
Phoenix
Oracle
Oraclecml
56% · 64 games50% · 82 games
VenomancerSe
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 62%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3