Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TLThe Last Darkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Disillusion
Rubick
Eren · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
The Last Dark
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
strawberry · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
poyoyo · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 2 games
Skywrath Mage
strawberry · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
732 picks · 624 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 529 bans
Beastmaster
518 picks · 1280 bans
Doom
518 picks · 1007 bans
Ember Spirit
451 picks · 1143 bans
Pangolier
445 picks · 920 bans
Mirana
425 picks · 224 bans
Enchantress
422 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength61% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:16
Team Disillusion 37%The Last Dark 63%
The model gave 63% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RubickEren
Void Spiritpoyoyo
60% · 162 games
BeastmasterShining
60% · 41 game
Queen of PainEcho
58% · 102 games
Batriderstrawberry
Game 2prediction correct9:21
Team Disillusion 39%The Last Dark 61%
The model gave 61% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RubickEren
Muertapoyoyo
49% · 47 games
Void SpiritEcho
65% · 44 games
MagnusShining
53% · 176 games
Clockwerkstrawberry
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 64%
Series resultThe Last Dark 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2