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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Limitloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 13 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Killa · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Eren · 4 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Killa · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Eren · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Eren · 3 games
67%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 21 game
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 10 games
70%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Victoria · 9 games
44%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubick
cxk · 8 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
727 picks · 623 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
515 picks · 996 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
512 picks · 1270 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
449 picks · 1138 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
443 picks · 914 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 223 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
418 picks · 607 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 17%
Hero pool strength57% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Team Disillusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:26
Team Disillusion 56%Limit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 42:42.
Game 2prediction missed15:36
Team Disillusion 56%Limit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Limit in 32:07.
Game 3prediction correct31:8
Team Disillusion 56%Limit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 24:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Disillusion · 56%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3