DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
South America Rejectswin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BCBreeki Cheekiloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
South America Rejects
Grimstroke
Scofield · 10 games
Doomsignature
Frank · 9 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 7 games
Breeki Cheeki
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 6 games
Slardaroften banned
спортик · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
Chenoften banned
asdekor_r · 5 games
Muerta
DarkLord^ · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 4 games
Magnus
OneJey · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
611 picks · 537 bans
Tiny
534 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
474 picks · 239 bans
Tusk
469 picks · 412 bans
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1015 bans
Puck
385 picks · 916 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% South America Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% South America Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:39
South America Rejects 63%Breeki Cheeki 37%
The model gave 63% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 1:03:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerWits
Lone DruidDarkLord^
TidehunterFrank
TimbersawChodΣX
TuskElmisho
Slardarспортик
GrimstrokeScofield
Phoenixasdekor_r
48% · 120 games
ClockwerkOneJey
Game 2prediction correct
South America Rejects 76%Breeki Cheeki 24%
The model gave 76% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects.
Game 3prediction correct42:14
South America Rejects 64%Breeki Cheeki 36%
The model gave 64% on South America Rejects — the game was taken by South America Rejects in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistWits
MuertaDarkLord^
Night StalkerFrank
Puckспортик
Shadow DemonElmisho
BristlebackChodΣX
HoodwinkScofield
Keeper of the LightOneJey
50% · 345 games
Tuskasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth America Rejects · 76%
Series resultSouth America Rejects 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3