?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 621 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 527 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
514 picks · 993 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
511 picks · 1268 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
449 picks · 1134 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
443 picks · 911 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
425 picks · 223 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
418 picks · 606 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:24
Alliance 63%Into The Breach 37%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 47:16.
Game 2prediction correct39:30
Alliance 63%Into The Breach 37%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 44:18.
Game 3prediction missed26:29
Alliance 63%Into The Breach 37%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 37:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 63%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3