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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 8 games
38%

Ancient Tribe

Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
27%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 621 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 527 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
511 picks · 992 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
508 picks · 1266 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1131 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
443 picks · 909 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
422 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
418 picks · 605 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Nigma Galaxy 54%Ancient Tribe 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
52% · 166 games54% · 269 games
DoomWuiter
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
52% · 251 game45% · 119 games
Bloodseekerlil pleb
Bloodseeker
Techies
TechiesGH
49% · 167 games54% · 9 games
NecrophosMo13ei
Necrophos
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorKuroKy
53% · 30 games51% · 100 games
PugnaAlexxo
Pugna
43% · 117 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 2prediction correct27:8
Nigma Galaxy 52%Ancient Tribe 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYuma
50% · 88 games51% · 283 games
DoomWuiter
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
54% · 448 games49% · 329 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Techies
TechiesGH
47% · 231 game45% · 137 games
Magnuslil pleb
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerKuroKy
51% · 286 games54% · 247 games
MiranaLeBronDota
Mirana
48% · 57 games
Shadow DemonAlexxo
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2