Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
SPAWN Team
Tusk
dalul · 24 games
Rubick
TraVins · 22 games
Miranasignature
TraVins · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
dalul · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
MamangDaya · 13 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 12 games
Marcioften banned
Red · 10 games
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 621 bans
Disruptor
599 picks · 527 bans
Doom
511 picks · 990 bans
Beastmaster
508 picks · 1264 bans
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1131 bans
Pangolier
443 picks · 908 bans
Mirana
421 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
418 picks · 605 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:35
Vision 24%SPAWN Team 76%
The model gave 76% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 23:56.
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Vision 24%SPAWN Team 76%
The model gave 76% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 40:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 76%
Series resultSPAWN Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2