DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Estar Backsloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 11 games
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 9 games
Jakiro
Accel · 8 games
Tiny
payk · 5 games
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
payk · 3 games
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 24 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
Tusk
Immersion · 19 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
611 picks · 537 bans
Tiny
534 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
474 picks · 239 bans
Tusk
469 picks · 412 bans
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1015 bans
Puck
385 picks · 916 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
Estar Backs 36%Power Rangers 64%
The model gave 64% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapayk
MuertaTA2000
SlardarVitaly
Tinynicky`cool
ClockwerkYadomi
Lycanmangekyou
50% · 198 games
HoodwinkImmersion
64% · 10 games
Winter WyvernHduo
Game 2prediction correct40:42
Estar Backs 38%Power Rangers 62%
The model gave 62% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinypayk
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
MuertaTA2000
VenomancerYadomi
Legion Commandermangekyou
48% · 27 games
IoImmersion
53% · 221 game
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 73%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2