?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Roddgeee · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
NARMAN · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 9 games
44%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Skem · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 7 games
71%

IHC Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
423 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
723 picks · 620 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 527 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
509 picks · 987 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
508 picks · 1261 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1127 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 906 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
421 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
417 picks · 605 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
Geek Fam 51%IHC Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautUlnit
50% · 52 games51% · 121 game
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Doom
DoomForce
53% · 221 game48% · 93 games
Underlordeleven
Underlord
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
50% · 398 games46% · 77 games
Earth SpiritSancity
Earth Spirit
Pugna
PugnaSkem
51% · 78 games42% · 128 games
Skywrath Mageace12
Skywrath Mage
57% · 330 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct33:25
Geek Fam 53%IHC Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerUlnit
49% · 72 games47% · 31 game
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Doom
DoomForce
56% · 224 games46% · 47 games
ZeusSancity
Zeus
Venomancer
VenomancerSkem
59% · 53 games43% · 97 games
Magnuseleven
Magnus
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
50% · 19 games45% · 69 games
Skywrath Mageace12
Skywrath Mage
49% · 124 games
ClockwerkSe
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 54%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2