Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Qhaliloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Costabile · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Mirana
KJ · 6 games
Qhali
Snapfire
MonHty · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 9 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Cucahook · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
722 picks · 619 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 525 bans
Doom
508 picks · 985 bans
Beastmaster
507 picks · 1261 bans
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1126 bans
Pangolier
441 picks · 904 bans
Mirana
420 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
416 picks · 605 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 25%
Hero pool strength51% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:44
Keyd Stars 55%Qhali 45%
The model gave 55% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Qhali in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerCostabile
Void SpiritCucahook
Kunkka4nalog
Queen of PainRobo-Z
SnapfireFCR
Doomdrakesh1t
Monkey KingKingrd
Skywrath MageMonHty
BatriderKJ
Oracle555k
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Keyd Stars 55%Qhali 45%
The model gave 55% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageCostabile
MedusaCucahook
Void Spirit4nalog
PuckRobo-Z
MagnusFCR
Beastmasterdrakesh1t
Bounty HunterKingrd
RubickMonHty
LichKJ
Venomancer555k
Game 3prediction correct38:20
Keyd Stars 56%Qhali 44%
The model gave 56% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCostabile
MagnusCucahook
TimbersawFCR
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Windranger4nalog
MiranaMonHty
Spirit BreakerKingrd
Enchantress555k
LichKJ
Death Prophetdrakesh1t
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 61%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3