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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 45 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 44 games
64%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 36 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 30 games
73%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakiro
Thiolicor · 33 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 29 games
28%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 25 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 22 games
59%
Viper
Viperoften banned
TaiLung · 22 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 18 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 537 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 539 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
473 picks · 238 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 412 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1015 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 915 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total77% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Aurora Gaming 67%Heroic 33%
The model gave 67% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
50% · 196 games48% · 149 games
WeaverYuma
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikoto
44% · 199 games50% · 299 games
UnderlordWisper
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 140 games47% · 138 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressKaori
48% · 69 games45% · 24 games
ZeusKJ
Zeus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
54% · 180 games55% · 174 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct31:30
Aurora Gaming 69%Heroic 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 59:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 221 game45% · 388 games
PangolierTaiLung
Pangolier
Puck
PuckMikoto
50% · 374 games52% · 271 game
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Largo
LargoWs
63% · 57 games50% · 173 games
DawnbreakerWisper
Dawnbreaker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
56% · 290 games50% · 51 game
Death ProphetKJ
Death Prophet
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
45% · 411 games46% · 470 games
Shadow ShamanThiolicor
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 77%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2