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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
los moticucosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Wij · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Benny · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
FCR · 3 games
100%

los moticucos

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
sl4d1n- · 4 games
75%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Accel · 3 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Alone · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Alone · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Accel · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Parker · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
721 picks · 619 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 524 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
508 picks · 983 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
505 picks · 1261 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
448 picks · 1125 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
441 picks · 901 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
420 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
415 picks · 602 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% los moticucos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% los moticucos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
x5 Gaming 46%los moticucos 54%
The model gave 54% on los moticucos — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonBenny
47% · 72 games48% · 50 games
MorphlingParker
Morphling
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTavo
49% · 104 games50% · 42 games
TimbersawAlone
Timbersaw
Venomancer
VenomancerWij
58% · 86 games47% · 38 games
Death ProphetOscar
Death Prophet
43% · 92 games
BatriderAccel
Batrider
54% · 40 games
Clockwerksl4d1n-
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed40:23
x5 Gaming 47%los moticucos 53%
The model gave 53% on los moticucos — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBenny
55% · 147 games40% · 56 games
BloodseekerParker
Bloodseeker
Batrider
BatriderTavo
51% · 255 games41% · 65 games
Void SpiritOscar
Void Spirit
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorWij
55% · 40 games37% · 179 games
RubickAlone
Rubick
52% · 92 games
Monkey Kingsl4d1n-
Monkey King
64% · 50 games
VenomancerAccel
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoritelos moticucos · 55%
Series resultx5 Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2