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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Holy Grailwin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Last Darkloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Holy Grail

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 5 games
20%
Snapfire
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Tzy · 3 games
67%

The Last Dark

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 3 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Shining · 2 games
100%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Shining · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 1 game
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 1 game
100%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
strawberry · 1 game
100%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
strawberry · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
719 picks · 618 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 524 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
505 picks · 977 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
501 picks · 1255 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
446 picks · 1119 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
439 picks · 897 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
419 picks · 222 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
415 picks · 596 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 75%
Hero pool strength63% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:27
Holy Grail 40%The Last Dark 60%
The model gave 60% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSummer
47% · 135 games55% · 171 game
Void Spiritpoyoyo
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierGaN-
52% · 225 games50% · 89 games
Queen of PainEcho
Queen of Pain
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerDrink
42% · 118 games44% · 162 games
MagnusShining
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerSj
53% · 128 games56% · 184 games
Techiesstrawberry
Techies
Game 2prediction missed26:10
Holy Grail 43%The Last Dark 57%
The model gave 57% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSummer
51% · 59 games47% · 24 games
Abaddonpoyoyo
Abaddon
Void Spirit
Void SpiritGaN-
52% · 92 games51% · 99 games
Storm SpiritEcho
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDrink
48% · 38 games48% · 37 games
TidehunterShining
Tidehunter
Oracle
OracleSj
50% · 23 games51% · 52 games
Silencerstrawberry
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed37:29
Holy Grail 42%The Last Dark 58%
The model gave 58% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 54:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSummer
49% · 131 game50% · 103 games
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainGaN-
50% · 95 games49% · 139 games
PangolierEcho
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDrink
50% · 58 games45% · 71 game
TimbersawShining
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaSj
50% · 99 games58% · 70 games
Silencerstrawberry
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 66%
Series resultHoly Grail 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3