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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ravenswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TiltedBoys

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ezekiel · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ezekiel · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ezekiel · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
0%

Ravens

Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Cara · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
PiPi · 9 games
22%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
29%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
719 picks · 618 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 523 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
504 picks · 977 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
501 picks · 1254 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
445 picks · 1118 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
439 picks · 897 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
418 picks · 222 bans
59%
Enchantress
Enchantress
415 picks · 596 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 18%
Hero pool strength61% TiltedBoys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:17
TiltedBoys 54%Ravens 46%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 43:19.
Game 2prediction missed9:41
TiltedBoys 54%Ravens 46%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Ravens in 29:55.
Game 3prediction missed17:34
TiltedBoys 54%Ravens 46%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by Ravens in 43:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 54%
Series resultRavens 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3