Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nexus Titansloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
Sammyboy · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Babitich · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 9 games
Clockwerk
Sammyboy · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Sunlight · 7 games
Rubick
FrancisLee · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
FrancisLee · 7 games
Tusk
Sammyboy · 7 games
Nexus Titans
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
718 picks · 618 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 523 bans
Doom
504 picks · 977 bans
Beastmaster
501 picks · 1254 bans
Ember Spirit
445 picks · 1117 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 897 bans
Mirana
418 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
415 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nexus Titans
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
Wildcard Gaming 56%Nexus Titans 44%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 36:45.
Game 2prediction correct39:9
Wildcard Gaming 56%Nexus Titans 44%
The model gave 56% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 27:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 56%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2