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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 44 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 35 games
40%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 539 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 537 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
470 picks · 238 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 412 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
394 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 911 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total67% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Rune Eaters 33%Team Lynx 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Rune Eaters.
Game 2prediction missed
Rune Eaters 33%Team Lynx 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 67%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2