Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 19 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 14 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 12 games
Into The Breach
Rubick
Immersion · 15 games
Miranasignature
RESPECT · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
718 picks · 618 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 523 bans
Doom
504 picks · 977 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1254 bans
Ember Spirit
444 picks · 1117 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 896 bans
Mirana
418 picks · 222 bans
Enchantress
415 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Old G
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
Old G 51%Into The Breach 49%
The model gave 51% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingTopson
MorphlingNande
MuertaNo[o]ne
Ember SpiritSupream^
BeastmasterCeb
Legion CommanderXibbe
Shadow DemonAramis
TechiesRESPECT
Game 2prediction missed
Old G 48%Into The Breach 52%
The model gave 52% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Old G.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 52%
Series resultOld G 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2