Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionEex-Monaspawin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 17 games
Miranasignature
Qupe · 15 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 13 games
Tinyoften banned
Qupe · 13 games
Tusksignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
Batridersignature
Mo13ei · 9 games
Rubick
Qupe · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 618 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 523 bans
Doom
503 picks · 974 bans
Beastmaster
500 picks · 1250 bans
Ember Spirit
444 picks · 1115 bans
Pangolier
438 picks · 896 bans
Mirana
417 picks · 221 bans
Enchantress
415 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% ex-Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% ex-Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:32
ex-Monaspa 55%IVY 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 25:15.
Game 2prediction missed12:41
ex-Monaspa 55%IVY 45%
The model gave 55% on ex-Monaspa — the game was taken by IVY in 27:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Monaspa · 55%
Series resultex-Monaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2