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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 17 games
41%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Beebie · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 10 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 9 games
56%

Neon Esports

Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hated · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Hated · 5 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
FortuneSoul · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
715 picks · 617 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 523 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
503 picks · 969 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1246 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
444 picks · 1110 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
436 picks · 893 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
417 picks · 221 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
414 picks · 595 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:34
UD Vessuwan 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKNP
52% · 98 games49% · 170 games
TerrorbladeFortuneSoul
Terrorblade
Batrider
BatriderBeebie
60% · 104 games50% · 143 games
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Rubick
Rubickboombell
43% · 166 games50% · 84 games
WindrangerHishge
Windranger
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLionaX
43% · 29 games
Game 2prediction missed24:19
UD Vessuwan 38%Neon Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKNP
44% · 31 game52% · 115 games
SlarkFortuneSoul
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierBeebie
50% · 185 games53% · 131 game
Void SpiritKen
Void Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonboombell
44% · 35 games48% · 89 games
Skywrath MageHishge
Skywrath Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorLionaX
53% · 84 games
Game 3prediction missed24:16
UD Vessuwan 41%Neon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 40:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenKNP
little data55% · 75 games
AlchemistFortuneSoul
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBeebie
53% · 64 games42% · 45 games
Earth SpiritKen
Earth Spirit
Batrider
Batriderboombell
52% · 64 games43% · 71 game
WindrangerHishge
Windranger
Undying
UndyingLionaX
54% · 63 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 69%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3