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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MODUSloss 1:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MODUS

Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 4 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
prblms · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
prblms · 3 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 3 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 23 games
39%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 539 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
531 picks · 407 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
477 picks · 537 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
470 picks · 238 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 412 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
394 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1014 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 911 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:25
MODUS 32%Nemiga Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbottega
54% · 110 games41% · 149 games
Muertaselfhate
Muerta
Slardar
Slardarelmo^^
52% · 330 games43% · 212 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void Spiritxn丶e
49% · 270 games57% · 6 games
Legion CommanderCovisnine
Legion Commander
Io
Iomrls
53% · 54 games50% · 281 game
Tuskariel
Tusk
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeprblms
60% · 75 games50% · 191 game
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed36:7
MODUS 34%Nemiga Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by MODUS in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidbottega
56% · 15 games45% · 7 games
Phantom Lancerselfhate
Phantom Lancer
Sand King
Sand Kingelmo^^
53% · 201 game50% · 331 game
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
53% · 468 games47% · 158 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Phoenix
Phoenixprblms
42% · 272 games48% · 286 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
60% · 357 games45% · 531 game
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct11:37
MODUS 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorbottega
41% · 82 games58% · 116 games
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Tiny
Tinyxn丶e
49% · 352 games48% · 398 games
Beastmasteryoung G
Beastmaster
Pangolier
Pangolierelmo^^
42% · 304 games52% · 206 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
49% · 302 games59% · 202 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Io
Ioprblms
39% · 26 games56% · 144 games
SilencerVaniLLl
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 80%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3