Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Boomy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 617 bans
Disruptor
596 picks · 523 bans
Doom
503 picks · 967 bans
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1246 bans
Ember Spirit
444 picks · 1108 bans
Pangolier
436 picks · 891 bans
Mirana
417 picks · 221 bans
Enchantress
414 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
Vision 18%Polaris Esports 82%
The model gave 82% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 24:34.
Game 2prediction correct28:9
Vision 18%Polaris Esports 82%
The model gave 82% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 26:19.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 82%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2