Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Qhaliloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Universitario Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Qhali
Snapfire
MonHty · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 12 games
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 9 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 9 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Cucahook · 7 games
Universitario Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
713 picks · 615 bans
Disruptor
595 picks · 521 bans
Doom
500 picks · 962 bans
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1239 bans
Ember Spirit
442 picks · 1105 bans
Pangolier
433 picks · 887 bans
Mirana
416 picks · 221 bans
Enchantress
412 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Universitario Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Universitario Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:33
Qhali 36%Universitario Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 47:06.
Game 2prediction correct11:15
Qhali 36%Universitario Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Universitario Esports — the game was taken by Universitario Esports in 28:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteUniversitario Esports · 64%
Series resultUniversitario Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2