Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
LBLucky Birdwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 11 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Iooften banned
Jubei · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 7 games
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
710 picks · 615 bans
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1228 bans
Doom
494 picks · 952 bans
Ember Spirit
440 picks · 1096 bans
Pangolier
427 picks · 882 bans
Mirana
415 picks · 220 bans
Enchantress
410 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total50% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
Sand King Gomez 49%Lucky Bird 51%
The model gave 51% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClockwerkJubei
MorphlingArgius
Keeper of the LightN1NE
Magnusblessed kid
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 50%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1