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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 1:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Lucky Birdloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 12 games
8%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
20%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
11%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Lodine · 8 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Lodine · 7 games
29%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 6 games
33%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
40%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
710 picks · 614 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1226 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
494 picks · 950 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
439 picks · 1096 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 882 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
415 picks · 219 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 587 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
B8 Esports 46%Lucky Bird 54%
The model gave 54% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenStoneBank
47% · 15 games54% · 114 games
Underlordblessed kid
Underlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawFunn1k
54% · 45 games48% · 157 games
Faceless VoidArgius
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDendi
52% · 76 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
46% · 64 games
Batrider
BatriderLodine
45% · 71 game
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 57%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1