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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Luna Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 21 game
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gilgir · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
55%

Luna Galaxy

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Alexxo · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Thiolicor · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
713 picks · 613 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
592 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1223 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
492 picks · 945 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
437 picks · 1097 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 882 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
413 picks · 219 bans
59%
Enchantress
Enchantress
409 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:46
One Move 53%Luna Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMunkushi~
49% · 92 games59% · 93 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAfterLife
44% · 122 games44% · 310 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
52% · 370 games49% · 97 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritGilgir
49% · 47 games53% · 240 games
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPanto
53% · 254 games48% · 145 games
MarsDavai
Mars
Game 2prediction correct59:41
One Move 52%Luna Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 52:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
48% · 166 games45% · 161 game
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMunkushi~
48% · 105 games48% · 107 games
UrsaShad
Ursa
Enchantress
EnchantressAfterLife
48% · 201 game51% · 153 games
Storm SpiritAdzantick
Storm Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGilgir
45% · 61 game56% · 73 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Bane
BanePanto
69% · 33 games52% · 72 games
PugnaThiolicor
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct50:18
One Move 53%Luna Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMunkushi~
43% · 59 games47% · 16 games
TinkerAdzantick
Tinker
Zeus
ZeusAinkrad
43% · 82 games54% · 212 games
BatriderDavai
Batrider
Timbersaw
TimbersawAfterLife
49% · 91 game54% · 113 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
50% · 47 games47% · 32 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Mirana
MiranaGilgir
52% · 115 games51% · 21 game
Witch DoctorXakoda
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 56%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3