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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Lucky Birdwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 10 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
57%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
33%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
0%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 3 games
0%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Yadomi · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
40%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Rises · 5 games
20%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Rises · 5 games
40%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Satoshi- · 5 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
713 picks · 613 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
592 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
494 picks · 1223 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
492 picks · 944 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
437 picks · 1097 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 882 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
413 picks · 219 bans
59%
Enchantress
Enchantress
409 picks · 585 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Sand King Gomez 48%Lucky Bird 52%
The model gave 52% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willow
Dark WillowN1NE
50% · 19 games43% · 31 game
Templar AssassinArgius
Templar Assassin
Silencer
SilencerJubei
55% · 39 games51% · 27 games
Underlordblessed kid
Underlord
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 56%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1